Against the Odds: Portland Home Prices Rise
Given today’s elevated mortgage rates and Portland’s recent wave of negative headlines, many might assume that local home prices are dropping.
But that assumption would be wrong.
According to the latest report from the Regional Multiple Listing Service (RMLS), the median home price in the Portland metro area rose 1.9% year-over-year in March, reaching $535,000. While RMLS provides data rather than analysis, the upward trend defies expectations in a climate where affordability and perception could both be taking hits.
Mortgage rates remain high, with the 30-year fixed rate sitting at 6.82% as reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. That’s more than double the historically low rates seen during the pandemic, and among the highest levels since 2007 — excluding a brief spike last year.
At the same time, Portland has struggled with a shifting national reputation. Once praised for its livability and charm, the city has more recently drawn attention for its homelessness crisis and public safety concerns. Even The New York Times, once one of Portland’s biggest champions, has taken a more critical tone in recent years.
And yet, housing prices remain resilient. A key reason? Limited inventory. Many current homeowners are choosing to stay put, hanging on to their low-interest mortgages. As of March, housing inventory stood at just 2.3 months—well below the five- to six-month threshold that typically signals a balanced market. In this environment, sellers continue to have the upper hand.
Portland’s relative affordability also plays a role. “There are plenty of people still moving here from more expensive cities,” says Suzanne Goddyn, a broker with Windermere Realty Trust. “We still look like a great value compared to places like Seattle and San Francisco.”
There are early signs that inventory may be loosening. Pending sales were up 2.8% in March compared to a year ago—an encouraging shift after a steep 31.7% decline from March 2022 to March 2023.
“Business has been remarkably boisterous,” Goddyn adds. While part of that surge can be attributed to the traditional springtime bump in listings, it’s clear activity is picking up. Goddyn points to her professional home stager being fully booked until May 6 as anecdotal evidence that sellers are still entering the market despite higher rates.
Lenders are also adapting, offering creative incentives to draw in buyers. Some are advertising programs that include free refinancing within the first year, should interest rates fall as many predict.
Still, one factor that’s giving some buyers pause is Multnomah County’s Preschool for All tax. The tax applies a 1.5% surcharge on incomes above $125,000 for individuals and $200,000 for joint filers. Goddyn says she’s currently helping a family relocate from Northeast Portland to Clackamas County, citing the tax as a primary reason for the move.
“The preschool tax put so many people over the edge,” she says. A drop in the number of residents paying the tax in 2022 compared to 2021 may suggest others are also choosing to leave, though more data will be needed to confirm that trend.
Even so, the tax has yet to trigger a significant shift in the housing market. For now, home values in Portland remain steady—and even rising—despite the pressures.
If you’re thinking about making a move, have questions about the market, or just want to know what your home is worth in today’s climate—I’m here to help. Whether you’re buying, selling, or just exploring your options, don’t hesitate to reach out!
