New NAR Data Points to a Shift in Momentum
The housing market has been in a holding pattern for a while, but new projections suggest that could finally change. Based on recent data and forecasts coming out of the National Association of Realtors, the next year may bring a noticeable increase in home sales after a relatively flat stretch.
What’s encouraging is that this potential pickup in activity is not expected to come with falling prices. NAR projections point to continued, measured price growth supported by steady job numbers and an ongoing shortage of homes in many price ranges. In other words, more buyers and sellers coming back into the market does not automatically mean values are headed lower.
Some of the early signals are already showing up. Mortgage applications have been running stronger than last year, which suggests buyer interest has not gone away, it has just been waiting for better conditions. Builders are also continuing to add supply, particularly in markets where demand has outpaced available homes.
Mortgage rates remain a big part of the conversation. The expectation is not for dramatic drops, but rather gradual improvement. Even small shifts in rates can make a meaningful difference in monthly payments and buyer confidence. Historically, modest rate relief has been enough to bring sidelined buyers back into the market once uncertainty starts to ease.
The reality is that the market is still uneven. Higher-priced homes have generally held up better, helped by equity-rich buyers and cash transactions. Entry-level and mid-range buyers continue to face tighter inventory and affordability challenges. NAR data shows first-time buyers making up a smaller share of the market and entering homeownership later than in past cycles, while repeat buyers are using accumulated equity to move more freely.
Pricing strategy is also becoming more important again. As homes sit longer in certain areas, listings that are priced correctly from the start tend to move, while those that overshoot the market often need adjustments to regain momentum. That shift puts a premium on understanding local conditions rather than relying on broad national headlines.
The bigger takeaway from the latest data is that the market may be transitioning from stalled to active. The fundamentals remain solid, with strong homeowner equity and steady employment supporting the foundation. While affordability challenges remain, the conditions for more movement appear to be lining up!
If you are thinking about buying, selling, or looking to prepare for the next phase of the market, this is a good time to start the conversation. Reach out anytime and we can talk through timing, options, and how to position yourself well for what comes next!
